All eyes are on countdown clocks and Bitcoin block count — the halving is just around the corner. The rising tide of Bitcoin rally everyone expects will lift all the boats on the market. At least, this is how the things are expected to proceed this time. But why? And how soon? And does it only have to do with the halving? In this follow-up to our Bitcoin price prediction for 2020, we will try to answer these questions and try to look as far as into 2025 or 2030!
What is Bitcoin?
This question has definitely been a start for the journey into the crypto sphere for most of us. Bitcoin has been the largest cryptocurrency on the market from the very start, and arguably served as a cornerstone of it.
The whitepaper for Bitcoin was published in 2008, though it had been in works for quite some time by then. In this document explaining the principles of Bitcoin, it is described as a peer-to-peer digital currency and envisioned as an alternative to cash fiat money. Genesis block #0 was mined by the Bitcoin creator(s?), Satoshi Nakamoto, on January 3, 2009.
A brief history of Bitcoin price performance
Bitcoin’s worth is determined by the market, not by any central authority, by design. In its earliest days, for example, when there was no market, its users determined its worth to be around 0.00005 in Papa John’s pizzas. This is, of course, in reference to the post on bitcointalk.com, published on May 18, 2010, in which user laszlo has offered 10,000 BTC to a stranger kind enough to buy him a couple of pizzas from Papa John’s. This is why May 18 is now known as Bitcoin Pizza Day, and sometimes Bitcoin Pizzas are used as a metric to illustrate the incredible growth in price Bitcoin has seen.
Bitcoin Price Prior to 2013
There was no market until 2010 when BitcoinMarket.com was created. Slowly but surely, Bitcoin was setting a framework for the crypto market.
The first miner reward halving happened on November 28, 2012. At that time, Bitcoin was traded at $12.22 USD. The event itself had no immediate effect, even on the network, but over the next year bull market established itself, and at the highest point of it, Bitcoin cost $1178. That is an almost 10,000% growth!
Its value was increasing, and by 2013 was already being accepted by some real-world merchants. The rising interest in Internet technologies, such as digital payments, as well as Cypriot financial and Greek government-debt crises have been connected with rising interest to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price during 2013–2014
All throughout 2013, Bitcoin was relatively stable, though the difference between a $266 high in April and $100 low in June is staggering. That is, until late 2013: in October an unprecedented rally began, taking it to parity with gold at $1,250 USD. The market was still extremely volatile and, obviously, the corrections followed suit.
To add insult to injury, the downtrend was exacerbated by Mt. Gox shut down and false reports of a ban of BTC in China. It reversed only in mid-2014. The year closed with the Bitcoin price sitting at $300 USD.
Bitcoin Price Performance between 2015 and 2016
But this was only the beginning of Bitcoin’s rise. During the following two years, it was steadily gaining value, with a few spikes like the one in November 2015 or June 2016. The late 2016 rally was connected with Chinese Renminbi depreciating against USD.
However, it’s even more likely that the rally in 2016 was not under the influence of external economic factors, but rather the development of the cryptocurrency market itself. As it was getting more mature, internal factors started having more effect, and the factor behind that was the July reward halving for BTC. Like the last time, around that time and soon after, Bitcoin was traded at around $650 USD. 17 months later, a new high: almost $20 thousand USD. But more on that in the next section.
During these two years, Bitcoin price has almost tripled, from $315 USD in January, 2015 to $973.99 in December, 2016.
Bitcoin Price during 2017–2019
In August 2017, Bitcoin Cash fork occurred. This added to the factors that helped BTC grow over the year, especially prior to that in anticipation of the event.
However, this was little in comparison with what was about to happen. The rally gained the attention of more investors, and over the following six-months it only accelerated, almost quintupling the price. There were some setbacks, like Chinese crackdown on ICOs and exchanges in September 2017, which caused a sharp dip to $2 900 USD. Regardless, the trend persisted, and Bitcoin reached its all-time high on December 17, 2017, when it was traded for $20 089 USD.
The correction, of course, followed suit, fuelled by the network problems, exchanges being overloaded and more investors coming to a conclusion that it was all just a big bubble. Increased interest of users also brought the sphere to regulators’ attention, and fears of intervention and manipulation accelerated the onset of the bear market. Some have called 2018 the worst year so far for Bitcoin: it lost 70% of its value, closing at $3,747, in comparison to opening $13,062 USD. At the same time, its trading volume peaked simultaneously with the price and was in a downtrend as well, dropping 88% to the level of $7.8 billion USD. This period would be labeled as “Crypto Winter”.
Bitcoin in 2019–YTD
But obviously, this was not the end. The entire market entered a stage of recovery, and the once lost interest of the public has been returning once again with the news on digital national currencies, most notably, digital yuan, launch plans for TON and Libra. In the short term, the news created short term price fluctuations, and in the long term have contributed to the emerging bullish trend.
In 2020 so far, another outside factor stepped in the game — the COVID-19 global pandemic and the stock market crash connected with it, which culminated in the March, 12 price drop by almost half (open: $7 913,62 vs. close: $4 970,79). BTC has recovered and is returning to its previous levels. With the halving coming right up, the future’s looking bright.
At the moment of writing, the total market cap for Bitcoin is $163 309 484 699 USD, with 18 363 037 BTC in circulation, that makes the price of it equal to $8 893,38 USD (all data taken from CoinMarketCap).
What can influence the price of Bitcoin
Miner reward halving
Speaking of halving, right now it’s the hot topic. The reason for that is the fact that previous two halvings have triggered a long-term bull-run for BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market. More can be read in the article by ChangeHero on Bitcoin halving.
In short, “halving” refers to the event of the miner’s rewards being reduced in half every 210 thousand blocks. It is a mechanism to keep the currency deflationary, so miners and investors alike can look forward to an increase in value for their Bitcoins.
There are a couple of contradicting theories on the bullish nature of halvings. On the one hand, we have the fact that halvings reduce liquid (i.e. circulating) supply significantly. Miners are active participants in the market and sell off their freshly minted Bitcoins soon, so when the supply is cut down, the price rises. On the other hand, the previous two halvings didn’t have a long-lasting effect on the network, and there were no drastic drops in network hashrate, meaning the miners price the halvings in, and ultimately, the market can account for them far in advance.
Before the 2017 boom, Bitcoin was mostly played by the participants who would come into the game knowing the rules, or would not lose much. Once the hype kicked in, though, a flood of new players came in, who might not have been aware of the nature of the game of trading, leave alone such volatile assets as cryptocurrencies. The bubble burst, and the unfortunate were plenty.
That was before any comprehensive regulation was in place. Setting the rules for the game and making sure that they are known to and followed by its participants is the key to widespread adoption. State regulations are supposed to keep bad agents away from the market and make life easier for the general folk. BTC, as the largest currency, will be the first to be affected by the law’s hand.
But in reality, as history shows, it’s not always this fine and dandy. Cryptocurrencies were devised by cypherpunks as a means to transact without any involvement of a third party, even if such party is the government. Cryptocurrencies can be a lifeline to dissidents in an oppressive regime or actually sound money in a hyperinflated economy. For Bitcoin this can possibly mean a decline in liquid supply and value.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Keith Wareing: Bearish
Wareing in his analysis takes into account more long-standing trends and signals. His monthly moving average divergence convergence analysis lets him conclude that there is a possibility of a bullish cross happening in June, though he admits that it is only a possibility. Applying the Fibonacci retracement to the more recent BTC/USD price movements, he sees that the level of $9,550 USD was not reached, so the pullback to $8,400 is to be expected.
Simon Peters: Bullish
Simon Peters of eToro suggests that the “bulls” are already making their move on the market in anticipation of the halving event, which itself might not even make a difference. He claims that there is a frenzy of “bullish” investors, and the price is very likely to move beyond $10,000 prior to the event.
BTC and #bitcoin on Twitter
Bitcoin is the king not only on the market. The hashtags #btc and #bitcoin are the most used and engaged with on Twitter, so much so that Twitter has given them their own emoji (though Jack Dorsey might have also had a say in that).
People are talking about the price movements, the economy, the upcoming halving… and about Bitcoin being mentioned in one of the recent episodes of “Billions”!
User @cryptorolly is known thanks to his timely and frequent price analytics on Bitcoin. Here he points at the current bullish trend at the week’s close.
Ivan on Tech is a popular YouTuber and podcaster, but he often engages with his viewer base and leads the conversation on Twitter as well.
Shalini is an Indian crypto influencer, showing her followers (and everyone interested) time and time again why she believes in Bitcoin: after all, no government rules it and its value rises amidst the global economic collapse.
The TV show “Billions” has recently returned with its fifth season, and the first episode features this scene, where a couple of miners are interrogated. Way to attract attention to BTC, Showtime, with the “Bitcoin is not backed by anything, but neither is USD” argument no less!
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2020
Arthur Hayes of BitMEX: $3,000 to $20,000
Instead of giving his estimate for only the maximum price, Hayes chose to state the range he believes BTC will stay in for the rest of the year. A possible reason why Bitcoin can reclaim its all-time high, according to him, is not due to the bull run itself, but more because of the psychological reasons, as investors are enthused by the bullish narrative. He bases the lowest price estimate on the fact that mining BTC at a price below that would not cover the expenses. Well, we all saw this statement being put to test in March!
Niklas Nikolajsen of Bitcoin Suisse AG: $5,900–$17,000
Nikolajsen bases his opinion on BTC price in 2020 on his observations of previous years and supposes that this year will be much the same as 2016, when the previous halving took place. He is moderately bearish on Bitcoin in this scenario, but does not see it claiming new heights.
Alex Mashinsky of Celsius Network: new all-time highs
In an interview with Ivan on Tech, Mashinsky explained his opinion that Bitcoin is not an uncorrelated asset and will more or less be influenced by the stocks market. He tends to see good signs in decrease in speculation, because to him it is one of the factors that hinders adoption. Nevertheless, it is thanks to the market players Bitcoin will be able to attract more attention once again and pave the way for more use cases in real life.
Bitcoin price prediction for the next few years
Danny Scott of CoinCorner: $100,000
Using data projections from the previous halving patterns, Scott concludes that while in the short-term, halving will not have a serious effect, in the next 12 to 18 months Bitcoin price might rise up to $100,000 levels.
Anthony Pompliano: $100,000
The same estimate is given by ‘Pomp’, as he claims that by the end of 2021 Bitcoin price will reach six-figure numbers. With as many reasons as he could cite in Twitter’s 280 character limit, he backed his words by stating his belief in the fixed supply model and increasing interest in the currency.
BeInCrypto: $31,200 by the end of 2021
The method used in this prediction is based on the comparison of previous and current market cycles and extrapolation of the trends, very common in historical analysis. Since this prediction was made in March, we can already see the bullish scenario they predict unfolding. By the end of 2021, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin will cost $31,200 USD.
Bitcoin price in more distant future
Raoul Pal, ex-Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager: $1 million USD by 2024
This is one of the better known claims, firstly, for its sheer boldness and secondly, for the author behind it: Raoul Pal predicted the ‘08 financial crisis back in the day. Most likely, he did not mean this literally, but rather used it to drive the point about Bitcoin being a safe haven home more effectively.
Andy Edstrom of WESCAP: $400,000 USD in 2030
As reported by Billy Brambrough, Edstrom expects the market capitalization of Bitcoin to rise up to $8 trillion USD, taking into account its qualities as a safe haven investment and believing its value can match the total market capitalization of gold in a decade from now.
Aimstone: $1 million past 2025
In a prediction close to Pal’s, YouTuber Aimstone, citing Dr. Saifedean Ammous and Plan B, makes the same claim. Plan B’s correlation between stock-to-flow and market value proved to be true for other commodities, and doing the same for Bitcoin and projecting the result on a timeline shows a prospect of Bitcoin price moving over $1 million USD after five years from now.
ChangeHero’s Bitcoin price prediction
So far, regardless of the market fluctuations, Bitcoin price seems to be doing better than the “bears” think, and the general sentiment around the post-halving reality seems to be bullish in the long-term. In that regard, ChangeHero’s Bitcoin price prediction for 2020 still holds up.
In the years to come Bitcoin might finally reach a global audience, with all the ongoing regulation proceedings. We have to bear in mind, though, that all the predictions showing to-the-moonish projections exist mostly in the realm of theory. The global pandemic this year has shown that we cannot retract real-world economic influence, be it a stock crash or an influx of users disillusioned with government-run finance. Just as much as we can’t predict the course of history, we can only try and see the course of things we can expect.
If you read the article until the end, we’re sure you liked it! Maybe you have an opinion on these predictions or even a prediction of your own? Share them with us and other readers on our Twitter, Medium, Subreddit, Facebook and in the Telegram!
This article is not a piece of financial advice. No price prediction is guaranteed to provide exact information on the future price.
When dealing with cryptocurrencies, remember that they are extremely volatile and thus, a high-risk investment. Always make sure to stay informed and be aware of those risks. Consider investitions in cryptocurrencies only after careful consideration and analysis and at your own risk.