XRP News This Week — ChangeHero Digest

The cryptocurrency market is having a rough week—and institutional forecasts aren't exactly painting a rosy picture for the immediate future. Standard Chartered's digital asset research team just lowered their near-term price targets, predicting Bitcoin could dip to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 before staging a recovery later this year. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows Ethereum whales quietly distributing their holdings, ETF flows are bleeding out, and even Bitcoin's mining cost floor is starting to crack. But here's where it gets interesting: amid all this short-term turbulence, Ripple just made some serious institutional moves that could reshape its long-term trajectory—even if XRP holders are feeling the pain right now.

Standard Chartered's Sobering Forecast: More Pain Before the Gain

Let's start with the elephant in the room. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, isn't sugarcoating it: there's "potential for further crypto price downside in the coming months." His team projects Bitcoin will sink to $50,000 before climbing back to reclaim $100,000 by the end of 2026. Ethereum's path looks even choppier—first down to $1,400, then a rally to $4,000 by year-end.

Why the bearish near-term view? According to Kendrick, ETF holdings have been falling "in an orderly manner," with the average Bitcoin ETF down around 25%. The numbers back him up. Bitcoin ETF assets under management peaked above $165 billion in early October and have since plummeted 41% to $96 billion. Ethereum ETFs? They peaked at $23 billion in August 2025 and have dropped 43% to just $13 billion. That's not panic selling—but it's a steady, grinding exodus of capital.

Here's the key part: Standard Chartered isn't abandoning its long-term bullishness. The bank maintains its end-2030 targets of $500,000 for Bitcoin, $40,000 for Ethereum, and $2,000 for Solana. The thesis? Institutional investors and ETF holders will cushion the downside this cycle, preventing the kind of catastrophic 80%+ drawdowns we saw in previous bear markets. Kendrick pointed out that current drawdown metrics—pullback relative to all-time highs and the percentage of BTC in profit—show sharp declines but "not as extreme as past cycles."

Still, the market isn't buying that optimism just yet. Users on prediction market Myriad are pricing in a 58% chance that Bitcoin drops to $55,000 sooner than it can rise to $84,000. That's a sentiment indicator worth watching.

Goldman Sachs Doubles Down on Crypto (via ETFs Only)

While retail sentiment is in the gutter—the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit a low of 6 before rebounding to 12, still deep in "extreme fear" territory—institutional players are quietly positioning. Goldman Sachs disclosed about $2.36 billion in crypto exposure in its Q4 2025 13F filing, representing 0.33% of its reported portfolio. The entire allocation is via ETFs—no direct token holdings.

Breaking it down: Goldman holds roughly $1.06–$1.1 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs and over $1 billion in spot Ethereum ETFs. The bank also initiated new positions of about $152–$153 million in XRP ETFs and $108–$109 million in Solana ETFs. That's not a bet on immediate price appreciation—it's a bet on long-term structural adoption, hedged through regulated instruments.

JPMorgan echoed this institutional optimism, forecasting that digital asset inflows will rebound in 2026, driven primarily by institutional investors. The bank also calculated Bitcoin's production cost at around $77,000—meaning extended trading below this level could pressure miners and force higher-cost operators offline. That's a deflationary supply shock in the making if it plays out.

Ripple's Institutional Push: Tokenization, Banking, and Stablecoin Integration

Now let's talk about the elephant that's quietly making moves while everyone else is panicking: Ripple. The company just announced a partnership with Aviva Investors to tokenize traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). This is Aviva's first tokenization effort and Ripple's first partnership with a Europe-based investment manager. The two firms plan to develop regulated blockchain-based fund structures starting this year, with Ripple supporting the issuance and management of tokenized funds on XRPL through 2026 and beyond.

That's not a pilot program—that's a multi-year commitment from a major institutional player. And it's just one piece of Ripple's broader strategy. Binance completed integration of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on the XRP Ledger, with deposits now live and withdrawals set to open once liquidity stabilizes. RLUSD's market cap has grown past $1.52 billion, backed 1:1 by U.S. dollar deposits, Treasury bills, and other liquid assets under a NYDFS trust charter. Reported reserves exceed 103% of total supply.

Meanwhile, Ripple Prime added support for integration with Hyperliquid on Feb. 4—the first direct link into a DeFi venue for Ripple's institutional liquidity platform. And in a move that underscores just how serious Ripple is about becoming a regulated financial institution, the OCC conditionally approved Ripple's national trust bank charter application on Dec. 12, alongside Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos.

There's a catch, though. The American Bankers Association sent a letter to the OCC on Feb. 12 asking regulators to delay additional crypto trust bank charter approvals until Congress finalizes stablecoin and broader digital-asset rules. That's a potential roadblock—but it also signals that traditional banks see Ripple's banking ambitions as a genuine competitive threat.

Technical Outlook: More Downside Ahead?

From a technical perspective, the charts aren't offering much comfort. FXStreet analysts noted that Bitcoin was rejected near $73,072 and has declined 5.5% through Thursday. If it breaks and closes below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $65,520, it could fall toward the Feb. 6 low near $60,000. Ethereum was rejected at $2,149 and declined nearly 8%, with potential downside toward $1,747 if the downtrend continues.

XRP is facing similar pressure. The token was rejected after revisiting a broken falling-wedge trendline and declined 7%, trading below $1.36 with potential downside toward weekly support near $1.30. That's not catastrophic, but it's a reminder that even fundamentally strong projects aren't immune to macro headwinds.

The Bitcoin "Technological Dead End" Debate

And then there's this curveball: David Schwartz, former Ripple CTO, called Bitcoin a "technological dead end," warning that it would likely need a hard fork to become quantum-proof. Schwartz said technological changes will be necessary or "Bitcoin will collapse." That's a controversial take—and it's worth noting that Schwartz has a vested interest in promoting XRP Ledger's technical advantages. But the quantum computing threat is real, and Bitcoin's conservative approach to protocol upgrades could become a liability if the timeline accelerates.

The Bottom Line

The crypto market is in a classic "fear capitulation" phase—but not the kind that signals an immediate bottom. Standard Chartered's forecast of Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 is sobering, but it's also a reset that could flush out weak hands and set the stage for a healthier rally later this year. The key difference this cycle? Institutional infrastructure is already in place. ETF holders are underwater but haven't panicked. Goldman Sachs is adding exposure. JPMorgan is forecasting a rebound. And Ripple is quietly building the institutional rails—tokenization partnerships, stablecoin integration, DeFi connectivity, and a pending trust bank charter—that could position XRP as a bridge asset when liquidity returns.

The short-term pain is real, but the long-term thesis hasn't changed: tokenization is coming, institutions are positioning, and the infrastructure layer is being built right now while prices are ugly. If you can stomach the volatility, the next six months could define who's still standing when the market turns.