2020 proved once again that Bitcoin halvings result in bullish markets. Was it a self-fulfilling prophecy or is there an actual link? Will Bitcoin go up in 2021? Here is an update from ChangeHero to include 2021 Bitcoin price prediction. We’ll also try to look as far as into 2025 or 2030!
What is Bitcoin?
This question has definitely been a start for the journey into the crypto sphere for most of us. Bitcoin has been the largest cryptocurrency on the market from the very start, and arguably served as its cornerstone.
The whitepaper for Bitcoin was published in 2008, though it had been in works for quite some time by then. In this document, it is described as a peer-to-peer digital currency and envisioned as an alternative to cash fiat money. Genesis (the very first) block was mined by the Bitcoin creator(s?), Satoshi Nakamoto, on January 3, 2009.
Bitcoin Price History
Bitcoin’s worth is determined by the market, not by any central authority, by design. In its earliest days, for example, when there was no market, its users determined its worth. At one point it was around 0.00005 in Papa John’s pizzas. (This is, of course, in reference to the post on bitcointalk.com, published on May 18, 2010. User laszlo has offered 10,000 BTC to a stranger kind enough to buy him a couple of pizzas.) May 18 is now known as Bitcoin Pizza Day, and Bitcoin Pizzas are sometimes used to illustrate the growth in Bitcoin’s price.
Until 2010, when BitcoinMarket.com was created, there was no market to trade cryptocurrencies. Since then, slowly but surely, Bitcoin was setting a framework for the crypto market.
The first miner reward halving happened on November 28, 2012. At that time, Bitcoin was traded at $12.22 USD. The event itself had no immediate effect, neither on the price or the network. However, a year later at the highest point of the bull market, Bitcoin cost $1,178. That is an almost 10,000% growth!
Its value was increasing, and by 2013 was already being accepted by some real-world merchants. The interest in Internet technologies, such as digital payments was on the rise. Cypriot financial and Greek government-debt crises have also been connected with rising interest to Bitcoin.
In perspective, throughout 2013 Bitcoin seems relatively stable. That is, until late 2013: in October an unprecedented rally began, taking it to parity with gold at $1,250 USD. The market was still extremely volatile and, obviously, the corrections followed suit.
The downtrend was exacerbated by Mt. Gox shutdown and false reports of ban of BTC in China. It reversed only in mid-2014. The year closed with the Bitcoin price sitting at $300 USD.
But this was only the beginning of Bitcoin’s rise. During the following two years it was steadily gaining value, with a few spikes in November 2015 or June 2016. The late 2016 rally was connected with Chinese Renminbi depreciating against USD.
However, it’s even more likely that the rally in 2016 was not under the influence of external economic factors. As the market matured, internal factors like the July reward halving for BTC started having more effect.
During these two years, Bitcoin price has almost tripled, from $315 USD in January, 2015 to $973.99 in December, 2016.
In August, 2017, Bitcoin Cash fork occurred. It was a result of a long-standing scaling debacle. The part of the community which was in favor of increasing the block size to help scale the network decided to split off.
However, this was little in comparison with what happened next. The rally gained the attention of more investors, and over the following six-months it only accelerated. There were setbacks, like a crackdown on ICOs and exchanges in China in September 2017. This caused a sharp dip to $2,900. Regardless, the trend persisted, and on December 17, 2017, Bitcoin reached $20,089.
The correction, expectedly, followed suit, fuelled by the network problems, exchanges being overloaded and investors terrified by a bubble burst. This brought regulators in, and fears of intervention and manipulation accelerated the onset of the bear market. Some have called 2018 the worst year so far for Bitcoin: it lost 70% of its value, closing at $3,747, in comparison to opening $13,062 USD.
But obviously, “crypto winter” (the depression of 2018 and bear market of 2019) was not the end. The entire market entered a stage of recovery, and the once lost interest of the public was returning. News on digital national currencies, most notably, digital yuan, launch plans for TON and Libra created price fluctuations. In the long term, returning interest has contributed to the bullish trend.
In 2020, other outside factors stepped in the game. The COVID-19 global pandemic caused a stock market crash, which culminated on March 12. Bitcoin’s price dropped by almost half (open: $7,913.62 vs. close: $4,970.79). After that, on May 11, mining rewards halved yet again.
Investors were getting ready for the history to repeat, and even institutional investors came in with the capital. This is said to be one of the driving factors of the current Bitcoin rally. Current ATH was reached on January 8, 2021: $41,941.56.
At the moment of the 2021 Bitcoin price prediction update, the total market cap of Bitcoin is $620,151,038,976.59. With 18,597,400 BTC in circulation, that makes the price of it equal to $33,311.62 (data from CoinMarketCap).
Factors influencing the price
To make educated guesses, we first have to see what has to be taken into account. These factors are often cited as reasons for bullish BTC price predictions.
Miner reward halving
Yet again, the supply rate slowing down made the demand and price skyrocket. Previous two halvings have triggered a long-term bull-run for BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market. More can be read in the article by ChangeHero on Bitcoin halving.
There are a couple of contradicting theories on the bullish nature of halvings. On the one hand, halvings significantly reduce issuance and inflation rate. Miners actively sell off freshly minted Bitcoins, so when the supply is cut down, the price rises. On the other hand, halvings don’t have lasting effect on the network, meaning these events are priced in.
Before the retail boom, Bitcoin was mostly owned by those who would come into the game knowing the rules. Once the hype kicked in, retail investors flooded in but unprepared to the shakiness of the market, suffered losses.
That was before any comprehensive regulation was in place. Setting rules for the game and making sure the participants respect them is the key to adoption. State regulations are supposed to keep bad actors away from the market and make life easier for the general folk. BTC, as the largest currency, will be the first to be affected by the law’s hand.
But in reality, as history shows, it’s not always this fine and dandy. Cryptocurrencies were devised by cypherpunks as a means to transact without any involvement of any third party, including the government. Cryptocurrencies can be a lifeline to dissidents in an oppressive regime or actually sound money in a hyperinflated economy.
Not all Bitcoin price predictions, however, consider this a problem. After all, Bitcoin did not need any authority to operate for a dozen years. Let’s move on to the 2021 Bitcoin price prediction from users and influencers on Twitter!
#BTC and #bitcoin on Twitter
Banks don’t like bitcoin because it makes them less relevant, so you are seeing their attempted manipulation over the weekend. #bitcoin $250 k by end of 2022, or early 2023.
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) January 11, 2021
Venture capitalist Tim Draper is one of the few early adopters among institutionals. His BTC price predictions were correct before, and for 2022 and 2023 his target is pretty bullish: $250 thousand.
Looks like fairly normal price action following a #Bitcoin quantitative tightening (halving) event. Not sure why everyone thinks this is so surprising. This is what an algorithmically programmed, unmanipulated, decentralized monetary policy does. Welcome to the 21st century. pic.twitter.com/PWrDEw9pVr
— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) January 8, 2021
Influencer and podcaster Preston Pysh is not surprised by the Bitcoin growth. He connects it with the halving, which was predictable and pre-programmed. In tune with the reducing inflation, the price increases.
Interest in the world’s biggest cryptocurrency has soared this year, with investors viewing bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and an alternative to the depreciating dollar https://t.co/pquJTdzWsD pic.twitter.com/8ItQZ1tI9s
— Reuters Tech News (@ReutersTech) January 5, 2021
When the market is booming, even the mainstream media starts talking about it. Unlike many media outlets, Reuters seem to be positive towards Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2021
Anthony Pompliano: $100,000
A very bullish estimate is given by ‘Pomp’, and his 2021 Bitcoin price prediction is six-figure numbers. He backed his words by stating his belief in the fixed supply model and increasing interest in the currency. Even at the end of 2020, his opinion did not change.
The method used in this prediction is based on the comparison of previous and current market cycles and extrapolation of the trends, very common in historical analysis. Since this prediction was made in March, we can already see the bullish scenario they predict unfolding. If history repeats itself, their 2021 Bitcoin price prediction is $31,200 USD.
Is Bitcoin a good investment 2021? According to Mike McGlone, yes. The Bloomberg analyst presented a BTC report in late 2020. In it, he states that the highest price target Bitcoin can quite realistically achieve in 2021 is $55 thousand. To make it possible, though, BTC will need to hit a $1 trillion market cap. The entire market has only recently been able to reach this mark. However, given the market dominance BTC has (55%–70% in 2020), it may happen soon.
Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2022–2024
Raoul Pal: $1 million USD by 2024
This is one of the better known claims, firstly, for its sheer boldness and secondly, for the author behind it: Raoul Pal predicted the ‘08 financial crisis back in the day. Most likely, he used it to drive the point about Bitcoin being a safe haven home more effectively.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025
What will Bitcoins be worth in 2025? The BTC price predictions for 2025 may surprise you!
Plan B: $1 million past 2025
In a prediction close to Pal’s, YouTuber Aimstone, citing Dr. Saifedean Ammous and Plan B, makes the same claim. Plan B’s correlation between stock-to-flow and market value proved to be true for other commodities. Applying it to Bitcoin shows a prospect of its price moving over $1 million USD after five years from now.
Jason Wiliams: $1–3 millions
Morgan Creek Digital Assets co-founder agrees with such an estimate. In Williams’ Bitcoin prediction, by 2025 BTC will be used by large banks and national treasuries. When a significant part of the world’s money supply would interact with Bitcoin, such figures, considering its limited supply, are not far-fetched.
Chamath Palihapitiya: $200,000 in five years
According to a more conservative prediction by a millionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya, in any time within the next five or ten years, Bitcoin is going to hit $200,000. He did not give a certain time frame, though. Bitcoin is a trustless asset, which will attract investors disillusioned with their governments.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030
What will Bitcoin be worth in 2030? No one can tell for sure, but there are a few BTC price predictions for ten years in advance.
Andy Edstrom: $400,000 USD
As reported by Billy Brambrough, Andy Edstrom expects the market capitalization of Bitcoin to rise up to $8 trillion USD. He is taking into account its qualities as a safe haven investment and believes its value can match the total market capitalization of gold in a decade from now.
Mike Novogratz: same, but by 2039
The same prediction is shared by billionaire Mike Novogratz, as he told in the interview with Antony Pompliano. Nevertheless, he is more moderate with his predictions, giving Bitcoin a couple of decades to get there.
Tyler Winklevoss: $500,000
It’s no wonder Winklevoss twins are bullish on Bitcoin: after all, it has made them millions. Seeing the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, they tout BTC as an alternative to gold. Should it reach the same capitalization, Bitcoin’s scarce supply will make each whole unit worth about half a million dollars.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2021–2030
|Year||Price in USD|
ChangeHero’s Bitcoin price prediction
In the years to come Bitcoin might finally reach a global audience, with all the ongoing regulation proceedings. We have to keep in mind, though, that all the predictions showing to-the-moonish projections exist mostly in theory. Some older Bitcoin price predictions happened to come true, and some missed.
The global pandemic last year has shown that we cannot retract real-world economic influences. It can be a stock crash or an influx of users disillusioned with government-run finance.
On ChangeHero you can buy Bitcoin with a credit or debit card or swap altcoins for the first cryptocurrency.
To exchange crypto for Bitcoin:
- Choose the currencies on the home page, amounts and the type of exchange. Provide your BTC wallet address in the next step and check the amounts;
- Send in a single transaction the sum of cryptocurrency you will be exchanging. Fixed Rate transactions have a 15 minute limit;
- From here on, you won’t need to do anything. At this step we are doing all the work: checking the incoming transaction and doing the exchange as soon as it arrives;
- As soon as the exchange has been processed, your BTC is on the way to your wallet. Congratulations! We’ll be happy to hear your feedback.
For instructions how to buy Bitcoin check out the guide How to Buy Crypto with Coinify.
The Bitcoin price predictions which we collected in 2020 came true: Bitcoin did reach first $17k, then $20k, then a new all-time high. We’ll see if the 2021 Bitcoin price prediction comes true.
If you read the article until the end, we’re sure you liked it! Maybe you have an opinion on these predictions or even a prediction of your own? Share them in the comments! Stay tuned for the updates to Bitcoin price prediction 2021 in our blog and on our social media: Twitter, Facebook, Reddit and Telegram!
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This article is not a piece of financial advice. No price prediction is guaranteed to provide exact information on the future price.
When dealing with cryptocurrencies, remember that they are extremely volatile and thus, a high-risk investment. Always make sure to stay informed and be aware of those risks. Consider investitions in cryptocurrencies only after careful consideration and analysis and at your own risk.