What started as an expression of dissatisfaction on the traditional financial systems led to the growth of a gigantic industry around it. Some call it an economic bubble and others applaud it as one of the most prominent technological innovations in history. Either way, Bitcoin continues to stun everybody with its price action and the buzz around it. Be it a rookie or a pro-crypto-trader, all of them have only one question — What would be the price of Bitcoin in the future?
In this article, ChangeHero aims to answer this question by giving you a clear-cut detail about the past and upcoming events that would impact the value of Bitcoin.
It all began when Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block of Bitcoin before a decade on 3rd January 2009 with the tag — “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on Brink of second bailout from banks.” That almost clears out the reason behind the birth of the world’s first cryptocurrency. Though the first bitcoin transaction took place on 12 January 2009, it was between Nakamoto and Hal Finney, one of the first programmers of Bitcoin and developed reusable proof-of-work (not hinting anything here 😉).
The first real-world transaction happened on May 22, 2010, when a miner had a good appetite by buying two pizzas from Papa John’s, must’ve been totally worth it.😉 At that time there was no set value and the price was negotiated on the bitcoin forum. In February 2010, BitcoinMarket.com was launched and a bitcoin was traded at a price of $0.003. In July, the same year, Bitcoin came into the caught the attention of the public when the news website Slashdot.org mentioned Bitcoin. This led to a drastic increase in the users and the price has increased ten folds reaching 0.08 USD per Bitcoin. In the same month, the popular Mt.Gox exchange also opened the doors for the public to trade bitcoin.
In the following two years (2011 & 2012), Bitcoin has seen technical advancements and began sparking a discussion in the community. At the beginning of 2011, BTC’s value was on par with the USD. A breakthrough in the reach came when the TIME magazine published an article about cryptocurrency which indeed helped Bitcoin reach new heights. But the enthusiasm didn’t last for long as the price plummeted following the infamous hack of Mt.Gox crypto exchange. In September, the same year, Vitalik Buterin co-founded the Bitcoin Magazine and we are all aware of how his story unfolded over the years.
The first halving event took place on November 28, 2012, at the block 210,000 which decreased the block reward to 25 BTC. Despite the halving event, BTC did not see any huge variations and ended the year 2012 at around $13. In the first half of 2013, BTC grew steadily followed by a short bear market in June. But, the crypto picked up in mid-august and entered the first remarkable bull-run. In November, BTC crossed the thousand dollar mark and was traded at over $1100 in December. In a surprise, bears hit the market and the prices plummeted quickly in the following weeks closing the year trading just above $750. The crypto winter continued for the next two years and bitcoin fell to $250 in mid-2015.
Right after that, the prices picked up which can be connected to the increase in merchants and banks accepting bitcoins as a means of payment. There was considerable growth in the subsequent months until the second halving event and Bitcoin reached over $600 by July 2016. Akin to the initial halving event, there was no spontaneous reaction in the market but the price rallied despite the infamous Bitfinex hack and BTC ended the year by trading at over $900.
2017 — Bulls unleashed
The year 2017 can be considered as the year of Bitcoin as it brought it into the limelight with its massive bull run. In February, BTC hit the thousand dollar mark putting an end to the three-year-long wait. In the next three quarters, BTC grew considerably and was sold at a price of $4700 by the end of August. Things escalated in the last quarter, bitcoin bulls were unleashed sky-rocketing the price in a span of few days and reached the all-time high of $20,089 on December 17th. This price surge can be related to the introduction of the offering of the Bitcoin Futures and many companies accepting BTC as a legal tender.
The celebrations didn’t last long as the price fluctuated dramatically in January 2018 raising concerns about the reliability of cryptocurrencies. This was followed by the ban of anonymous trading in South Korea and Facebook advertising and the BTC took a nose-dive and fell under $7000 in February. This marked the beginning of the bear run and the value depreciated to $3500 by the end of the year 2018. One of the major reasons concerning the bear market would be the backlash from multinational companies banning advertisements of cryptocurrencies, unfavourable legislation, and incidents of hack and theft of Bitcoins from exchanges.
Bitcoin commenced the year 2019 just below $4k and the price remained rather stable without any major highs and lows in the first quarter. In March, the Iranian government lifted the ban on cryptocurrency and eventually bitcoin has started gaining and crossed the 5000 dollar mark in early April. The price action can also be correlated to the anonymous purchase of a whopping 20K bitcoins in the Asian market. Bitcoin continued the rally and clocked a year-high price of $13,016 in June and the rise can be attributed to the launch of Bitcoin futures in the market. Later in the year, Bitcoin continued to fall and ended the decade just above seven thousand dollars.
Kickstarting the decade with a bull run
Bitcoin kicked off 2020 with a $500 rise in the first week of January itself and traded at over $8000 per bitcoin. Albeit the fluctuations, in the last few days, BTC saw huge gains with $9k in clear sight. This current trend can be contributed to the political tensions globally and the unstable economies looking towards bitcoin for everyday use. As of writing, Bitcoin is being traded at a price of $8788 with a total market value of over 159 Billion Dollars.
Impact of Halving
If you have been following the cryptocurrency for a while then you should have definitely come across the word Halving. The block reward of Bitcoin is expected to halve in the first quarter of this year and experts predict this will have a significant effect on the price of Bitcoin. If we draw patterns from the historical data, both the halving events did not yield an immediate effect on the price but resulted in constant growth for over a year and then led to all-time highs. Based on these observations it can be said that halving can probably initiate a new bull run. Check out this article on Bitcoin Halving to know more about how halving could impact the bitcoin’s price in detail.
Buzz in the community
There has been mixed opinion on the future of Bitcoin in the community. Wallet investor predicts that by the end of 2020, Bitcoin would be priced at around $12000. On the same note, LongForecast is also bullish on Bitcoin’s future and the firm estimates that Bitcoin will be traded at around $14000 per coin.
Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin would be traded anywhere between $6800 and $50000 in the near future. Alongside with the bulls, Tomas Salles suggests that BTC will be reaching a price of $80,000. On top of all this, John McAfee went a mile ahead and predicted that Bitcoin will be traded at a mammoth price of $1 Million per coin.
An omnipresent legacy
Though all these predictions sound too good to be true, it is near to impossible to come up with an exact price of Bitcoin in the future. Considering the current trend and the historical data, we can conclude that Bitcoin is set to enter a new bull run post the halving event. On the whole, there are a ton of factors that affect the price of the crypto, increased adoption and favourable laws around the world would definitely drive the value of Bitcoin. On a final remark, it has been over a decade since the birth of Bitcoin and the legacy is omnipresent and we believe that it will continue to do so and reach new heights in the future.
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